I've ignored Paul Krugman's columns for almost a year now after concluding that they are almost always completely predictable, obviously partisan, and stubbornly pessimistic. Having realized that Bush's team might be smarter economists, Krugman has recently resorted to cheap shots on Iraq is supposed "Economic" columns. I can't tell you why I forced myself to read his column today, but as usual, I regret it.
Being the esteemed Princeton economics professor that he is, Krugman finds it necessary to publically ruminate on all that is wrong with the U.S. economy (and it always leads back to criticism of the Republican administration).
On this issue of jobs, I've become particuarly interested in the difference between the payroll and household methods of surveys. While the payroll survey shows a jobless recovery, the household survey suggests something far different, as says Tim Kane of Heritage:
"Since the recession ended in November 2001, the payroll survey has reported 323,000 fewer payroll jobs, but the household survey has found 1.9 million more overall jobs. Common sense tells us that payroll jobs aren't the end-all, be-all of jobs in the new economy. Economists reflexively like payroll data because it has a bigger sample, but quantity doesn't always ensure quality."
Krugman has made mention of these two methods of job counting but quickly discounts the household survey (who would've guessed?) and declares:
"Conservative commentators are raising objections only because they don't like the facts."
Funny he should say that. In today's column, Krugman was faced with explaining the payroll survey's recent report that over 300,000 jobs we're created in March. With no reservation, Krugman blurts:
"[We shouldn't] make too much of one month's data; payroll numbers are, as economists say, noisy."
Thanks for proving everyone else right. The payroll estimates are hardly the end-all. They're erratic, and fail to take into account significant types of job growth that the household survey does consider. I'm not advocating one over the other, but both should certainly be considered. A review: payroll survey shows job growth up, household survey shows job growth having been up for a while, unemployment is down, the stock markets are way up. Give up the doom and gloom already Krugman.
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