First, I want to say that I'm glad this election was decided decisively and quickly. It shows that no matter how divided the electorate may be, a situation like the one we saw in the 2000 election was a true anomaly.
I'll admit i'm somewhat surprised at the outcome--not so much who won but by how much. On the day before Election Day (and even from exit polls on Election Day), all things seemed to point to either a narrow Kerry win or an extremely close Bush win. Also, I'm particularly surprised at how easily the Republicans cleaned up in the Senate and House races. Can anyone believe that Tom Daschle lost? It’s incredible.
With the campaign and election now behind us, I have a few theories as to why Kerry was unable to lead the democrats to victory against a president with only a 49% approval rating. To start, I think Kerry blew a huge opportunity by not focusing more in Iraq in the final weeks and days of the campaign. Exit polls show that among those who believed Iraq was the most important issue, 73% voted for Kerry. By heavily emphasizing the battleground states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, the Kerry camp focused too much on the economy and jobs in the last two weeks. Despite the fact that Kerry received his biggest boost in support after the 1st debate, not the 2nd or 3rd, Kerry's campaign never seemed to believe they really held a significant edge over Bush when it came to Iraq. In reality, a significant number of voters, including myself, were actually most unsure of a Bush re-election not because of the economy, jobs, or taxes, but because of the lead up to war in Iraq and the situation on the ground there today.
However, the exit polls show another important development in our country today. 34% of voters referred to themselves as conservative and only 22% referred to themselves as liberal. With referendums against gay marriage also passing in 11 states, it’s clear that our country is fairly conservative on the whole. How will democrats redefine their image so as to better represent the American people? First of all, I think it is pretty obvious that Massachusetts liberals simply cannot be elected president with the way the country is right now. Think about the last three democratic presidents: Clinton from Arkansas, Carter from Georgia, and Lyndon Johnson from Texas. In my mind, John Kerry was not a very good presidential candidate. The only reason this race was close is because Bush is not a very popular president, and the 2000 election still angers many voters today and influenced them to vote for Kerry even if they didn't really like him.
I really do have hope for the next four years though. I hope Bush returns to his moderate style of governing that we saw him use as governor of Texas. It will be interesting to see who he appoints as the next Secretary of State and whether he will dump Rumsfeld now that the election is over. Bush has a great chance to really get a lot done with the Republican controlled Congress. Hopefully, he will use his power to finally unite the country and the world. We have to remember that the next two years will probably be a strong expression of what it means to be Republican. If things go badly between now and 2008, we know who to blame. Hopefully, though, things well go well and this president's second term will be much less momentous and less troubling than his first.
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