A year ago, I wrote a post celebrating the Giants' trade for Eli Manning in the 2004 NFL draft. This year, the Giants were without their first-round pick as a result of that trade. So things were a little less exciting...I had to wait 7 hours yesterday for the Giants to finally make their second round #43 pick.
This article in the Times today makes me feel a little better about the Giants' lack of 1st-round pick this year. The article looks at analysis from two economists who argue that NFL team executives almost always overestimate the importance of top draft picks. The basic gist:
"More than anything, the research on the N.F.L. draft by Mr. Massey and Mr. Thaler suggests the value of humility when it comes to making judgments. The team that has done the most recent trading to get additional lower draft picks is the New England Patriots, winners of three of the last four Super Bowls. A decade ago, it was Mr. Johnson's Cowboys. Once the chart told him the going rate for high draft picks, he swapped a few of them for lots of low ones, creating the core of a team that also won three championships."
Does this mean the Giants are likely to have picked a future pro-bowler in Corey Webster at #43 this year? Probably not. But then again, the last time the Giants were without a 1st-round pick was in 1993. That year, they used their #40th overall pick to draft one of the most dominant defensive players in NFL history: Michael Strahan.
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