otium cum dignitate

Obama Pulling Away?

Recent polling in Iowa shows Obama making a late surge, and now leading all Democratic candidates with a 2 point lead over former front-runner Hillary Clinton.  Polling averages from RealClearPolitics shows the following Iowa breakdown:

Obama: 29.6 %
Clinton: 27.6 %
Edwards: 23.6 %

How did Hillary suddenly become so vulnerable just as Obama began his latest surge?  Part of the problem, I think, is timing.  Obama engaged in offensive attack-style politics on Hillary over a month ago when he questioned her inconsistent stance on New York Governor Elliot Spitzer's proposal to give illegal immigrants driver's licenses.  Because Hillary was the obvious front-runner at the time, all the Democratic (and Republican) candidates were happy to join Obama in a general Hillary bash-fest. 

But now, with the Iowa caucuses only two weeks away,  Obama has found himself with the lead,  partly because of a series of powerful speeches.  In a sign of desperation, Hillary's campaign has begun to engage in its own series of negative attacks on Obama, but now the timing is off.  Iowans don't appreciate negative politics this close to the caucuses.  A particular Clinton campaign blunder occurred when a Clinton aide criticized Obama's past admission of drug use.  Hillary later apologized for the remark, and the aide in question has since resigned. 

Obama certainly seems to have peaked at the perfect time.  But we've seen the candidates' fortunes in this race change rather dramatically.  It's still uncertain whether John Edwards may have enough support to surprise everyone with an 11th hour "closing argument."  And there is still the worry that Obama may be more style than substance.  As one writer recently remarked,

"Barack Obama is the George Clooney of the campaign, having to tamp down the adulation with a cool and cerebral presentation -- so cool he sometimes gets more applause upon entering a room than leaving it."

I think Hillary will rebound, and this race in Iowa will likely become a dead-heat between Obama, Hillary, and Edwards right up until January 3. 

Rolling the Dice

I'm a pretty big fan of Bill Clinton, as a politician, but I can't agree with his statement this weekend on the Charlie Rose show when he said that voters willing to support Obama should think twice before they decide to "roll the dice." 

Apparently, Bill questioned Obama's ability to be President because he has only served one year in the Senate.  This seems a somewhat odd statement considering that Bill himself proved that extended Senate service is an unnecessary bullet point on a Presidential candidate's resume. 

The New York Post (always respectable) reported that Bill had more to say:

"He also had this backhanded compliment for his wife's rival: 'I get tickled watching him.'"

Odd.

Bill should probably just stay quiet for the time being.  His best chance at providing a boost to Hillary's campaign is just to be his normal likable self.

UPDATE:

Richard Cohen addressed the Change v. Experience dynamic between Obama and Hillary in his column today, and had the following to offer:

"Of course, it is too late in the game for Hillary Clinton to repackage herself as an agent of change. Her entire demeanor has been a steady-as-she-goes solidity, resolutely sensible, reliably reliable -- an A in every subject by dint, if nothing more, of diligence. She and Bill extol her experience, but that only ties her more to the status quo and, by proximity, to the problems of the day. When things are not working -- and, after all, things are not working -- Bill Clinton himself has shown that in presidential politics, change trumps experience any day."

Again, Bill's Presidential appeal was his fresh voice - he wasn't a "Washington Insider."  Bill's continual presence on the campaign trail may ironically convince voters that the Bill Clinton in this 2008 race may be more like Obama than Hillary herself. 

Romo's Girl

She couldn't have been too happy about Romo's three-interception performance in a 10-6 loss to the Eagles in Dallas this past Sunday.

The Mitchell Report

The report was just released.  I skipped to the section on former and current players who have been named as steroid/HGH users at some point in their career.  Here's some of the big names:

Roger Clemens
Andy Pettite
Miguel Tejada
Eric Gagne
Mo Vaughn
David Justice
Kevin Brown
Mike Stanton
Brian Roberts
Lenny Dykstra
Rondell White

More on this to come...

First DC Snow of the Season

The first snow is always the most fun.  It'll probably be 60 degrees next week. 

I'm still trying to shake off that inexplicable Davidson loss to Charlotte last night. 

Ok, back to studying...environmental crimes final tonight.