otium cum dignitate

Baseball Post #1: The Unheralded Casey Kotchman

Since I already spend hours of my day reading and researching baseball statistics, I feel like I should impart some of my more esoteric tidbits of baseball knowledge to my loyal blog readers.  And I might as well join the millions of baseball bloggers in an attempt to act like I actually know what I'm talking about.  These posts should also be helpful to fantasy baseball players (like myself) who don't have the time or motivation to dig through unending pages of stats and player notes. 

Today's baseball post examines the curious lack of hype for the young Angels slugger Casey Kotchman.  Selected in the first round in 2001, Kotchman is only 24 years old, and he is putting up elite batting statistics this year:  .333 avg, 8 hr, 35 rbi, .411 OBP (24:16 BB:K ratio).  Kotchman's .967 OPS ranks him 9th in the majors.  Moreover, Kotchman's GPA (gross production average -- basically OPS adjusted for park factors) is .336, placing at #7 in the league between David Ortiz and Prince Fielder. 

Perhaps Kotchman's .152 avg in 2006 scared the hype bandwagon away.  Nevermind the fact that he had mono last spring, and went on the DL for the year with the illness in May.

Kotchman hasn't exactly come out of nowhere.  His career Minor League #'s: .325 avg, .407 OBP, .900 OPS.  In 2001, Baseball America rated Kotchman the #1 high school prospect in the country.

So why isn't this guy demanding the sort of hype typically showered on young phenoms (see David Wright, Prince Fielder, Justin Verlander)?  He's currently suffering from post-concussion symptoms (someone threw a baseball at his head), so maybe the injury has quieted the hype machine.  The real answer, I think, is that Kotchman has never really showed 40-50 HR potential.  That's ok with me though.  He's on my fantasy team for good and I have no fear predicting 2007 #'s of: .320 avg, 28 HR, 100 RBI, 90 BB's, 90 runs.  Going forward, Casey Kotchman will be a top 15 player for years. 

Thrashers Dedication

This post is dedicated to the Atlanta Thrashers who clinched a playoff berth in the NHL playoffs for the first time in their short existence. 

This team was a healthy goalie away from the playoffs last season, and they finally got the job done in 2007.  I'm not sure about the prospects of hockey in the Southeast, but with the Thrashers in the playoffs and the Nashville Predators leading the league with one of the best overall records, there is some hope that hockey will gain popularity in southern cities. 

My hopes for the playoffs don't realistically extend beyond a well-played first round series.  But who knows?  The Thrashers have a dynamic offense, with potent weapons in Ilya Kovalchuck and Marion Hossa.  Sometimes I like to refer to the team as the Colts of hockey. 

Couple of law posts forthcoming...

The Dirty Bird

Last Sunday, the Falcons continued their abysmal play and lost badly to the Saints, 31-13, at home at the Georgia Dome.  Michael Vick is partly to blame for the Falcons' collapse, and fans let him know it as he walked off the field after the loss.  Vick responded with his own version of the "dirty bird" and flashed the obscenity shown here at his own fans. 

Michael Vick really needs to remember how to win.  When he first came into the league, he made many mistakes, but he was exciting and fun to watch because his competitivism drove him to make amazingly athletic plays never seen in the NFL before.  Nowadays, he seems like he doesn't really care.  The team sucks, and Vick should only expect more calls for his backup, Matt Schaub, after flipping off his home crowd.

Review: World Cup 2006

I'm new to this soccer thing.  I don't normally follow or care about the sport.  Before this year's World Cup, the last soccer game I watched was four years ago when the USA lost to Germany in the quarterfinals.

This summer, I tried to get into the World Cup as a number of my friends are soccer addicts.  For the most part, I was disappointed.

First, what could be more depressing than to watch the USA get dominated twice, and fail to even make the second round?  Only in hindsight do we now know how impressive that tie with Italy was.  The USA was just plain horrible.  I was embarrassed.

Next, the refereeing throughout this World Cup was a disgrace.  Too many cards, WAY too many penalty kicks awarded.  The way I see it, a penalty kick should only be awarded if there is a flagrant foul in the box, the kind of foul that most likely prevents a goal.  Let's be honest.  Penalty kicks basically = goals.  In soccer, goals are too precious to be awarded out for cheap or non-existent fouls in the box.

And speaking of penalty kicks, how on earth is it ok that a thirty-day world tournament that occurs once every four years ended with both teams alternating penalty kicks like an 8-yr old soccer drill?  These teams battled for a month, sacrificing their bodies and fighting passionately for their country, only to be belittled by FIFA's pathetic procedure for breaking a tie.

Lastly, I was totally turned off by the ubiquitous flops and faux-fouls that so many teams were guilty of during this World Cup.  In the USA, such behavior is viewed by most as not only unsportsmanlike, but cowardly and pathetic.  In FIFA soccer, it's the standard.  In fact, I think the USA team was hurt by its lack of acting skills.  More dives against Italy or Ghana might have put us over the top.  Maybe.

Boo-birds

Today, I went to the Nationals home opener at RFK stadium and witnessed the overwhelming booing that rained down on Dick Cheney as he threw out the first pitch.  It was almost hard to bear.

I'm not a hardcore Republican, but I felt that the fans were really out of line.  I mean, why do DC people feel as if everything involves a political statement?  We are there watching baseball, and it is kind of neat to see one of our top elected officials paying homage to the game as well.  The least you can do is sit there and keep your mouth shut if you don't approve.  The boos were really too much.

On a side note, the Nationals sucked it up today on the field, and I do not have any problem with fans booing them (or at least their GM Bowden) for the pathetic showing on the field.

"New York third baseman David Wright said he was thrilled to meet Cheney and shrugged off the booing.

'When you’ve got 50 percent of America that’s Republican, 50 percent that’s Democrat, you’re probably going to get mixed reviews,' Wright said."

Haha.  Well said, David Wright.  But I still like to keep my politics and baseball separated.

More Comcast Hate

As mentioned in a previous post, Comcast is refusing to show Nationals games in the Washington market because of a childish dispute with a local sports network.  As with other baseball issues, Congress wasted no time getting involved.  The fact that this situation concerns the local team makes it even better. 

Congress is basically forcing Comcast and MASN, the regional sports network that has the rights to the Nationals games, to make a deal.  Supposedly, they have three weeks to get things straightened out.

This is just another symptom of the absurd monopoly that Comcast has over the DC market.  Especially in the district, Cable prices are ridiculously high (my combined cable and internet bill is $110/month, as opposed to my utilities bill which comes out to about $60/month). 

The other night, Comcast blacked out a game that was being covered on ESPN but then didn't show the game on the local MASN network either.  Some people may think that Congress has better things to do than meddle in sports disputes, but this strikes at the heart of Comcast's monopolistic practices.  I applaud the Congressional Committee for taking action.

Sports and Predictability

The Los Alamos National Laboratory just released a statistical study on the differences in predictability in five major sports leagues:  The English Football Association, the MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. 

The results?  The English Soccer League produces the most underdog victories (45% of matches result in upset victories) while the NFL turned out to be the most predictable with only 36.4% of games resulting in underdog victories.  Between these two poles:  MLB (44%), NHL (41%), and the NBA (36.5%).

While this would tend to alarm an ardent football fan who probably lives by the "Any Given Sunday" mantra during the fall, the results shouldn't be that surprising.  In sports with less scoring (soccer and baseball), predictions are harder to make since scoring is sometimes flukey and can result from unusual mistakes or circumstances.  In basketball and football, on the other hand, teams have more opportunities to score points, and so individual games trend closer to the overall mean. 

Moreover, scoring in baseball and soccer is often attributed to a single player, whether that be a pitcher in baseball or a goalie in soccer.  In the NFL, a touchdown or field goal is usually produced when a team simultaneously executes a number of strategies and decisions by every player from the offensive lineman to the quarterback. 

Although it's sometimes more fun to watch less predictable sporting events (e.g. March Madness), I find predictability in the NFL to lend a measure of order and legitimacy to the sport's best teams and coaches.  It reinforces my belief that expert coaching really does make a difference, and that's why I love the sport so much.

The No Fun League?

Among the new NFL rules recently created by the owners, the biggest attention-grabber is the new prohibition of endzone celebrations following touchdowns.  This effectively puts an end to TO's sharpie antics, Steve Smith's wiping the baby, and Joe Horn's cell phone calls. 

Critics accuse the NFL of reinterpreting it's acronym as the "no fun league."  But the league made sure to state that more natural, less contrived celebrations are still allowable, such as spiking the ball, spinning the ball, performing the Lambeau Leap, and even dancing. 

I generally didn't mind the more flagrant celebrations of the aforementioned players.  However, it did sometimes annoy me when one of these guys would catch a game-winning TD and rather than embracing their teamates, they would force them to first watch a self-serving spectacle  that drew all the attention to one player rather than the team.   

For better or for worse, it is clear that the NFL is the most draconian of all professional sports leagues in the United States.  While the NHL continues to endure the anachronism of crowd-pleasing fighting, the NFL refuses to even allow an innocent celebration.  I think I generally agree with the NFL on this point, but I won't be happy if my team gets slapped with that 15-yard penalty.

An Alternative to the Gas Tax

Gas tax advocates have argued feverishly for a strict gas tax as a blunt method to quickly curb America's addiction to oil.  They  see the tax essentially as a disincentive to buy and drive gas-guzzling cars.  But like all sin taxes, the government likewise enjoys the hefty revenue intake when people decide to swallow the costs and maintain their supposedly illicit behavior.  An article in yesterday's Times looked at what might happen when gas taxes accomplish the first goal of minimizing gasoline usage in the country. 

In Oregon, a state with many clean air and "clean car" programs, the expected reduction in gasoline use could take a significant toll on the state's treasury.  As many know, most states already have a gas tax, albeit usually a small toll around 20-30 cents/gallon.  The proceeds go almost exclusively to building and maintaining the ubiquitous highway systems that pervade today's landscape.  Unfortunately, as gasoline usage begins to subside, states are going to find themselves strapped for money to keep up with the inevitable maintenance of all that asphalt. 

As the article explains, Oregon is experimenting with an alternative to the gas tax to address these concerns.  The alternative is essentially a vehicle-mounted GPS system that tracks miles  traveled, where traveled, and during what time of the day.  The idea, in the long-run, is to tax miles driven at different rates depending on the time of the day or location. 

While I am a strong proponent of breaking this country's oil addiction, my hopes for the future extend beyond mere environmental concerns.  More than anything, I still hope that the rise in oil costs will change the direction of future development and land use from a car-oriented strategy to a transit and pedestrian friendly system.  However, the more likely scenario is that new technology such as hybrid or hydrogen-powered vehicles will prevent a reduction of Americans' dependence on cars in the coming years. 

Apparently, Oregon foresees this same possibility.  If our need for roads and highways remains high, but state revenue from gasoline taxes falls, something like a per-mile tax will have to be instituted.  The idea is still in its formative stages, but it is certainly something that could come to fruition fairly soon.

The conclusion of this article introduced a number of privacy concerns that such a system would create.  The lawyers seem to be getting excited about the thought already.  I'm sure such concerns could be addressed, but it might be fun to be in the middle of something like that...

Davidson in the Dance!

Davidson won the men's Southern Conference basketball tournament today in dominating fashion and received an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament in a few weeks.  I watched the game on ESPN 2, and thoroughly enjoyed every second of the 80-55 blowout over UT-Chattanooga. 

Long-time readers of this blog know that things were far less joyous around this time last year.  My friends and I cut our spring break trip short and drove about 9 hours in one day up to Chattanooga to see Davidson compete in the Socon tournament semi-final.  Despite finishing the regular season a perfect 16-0 in conference, Davidson choked and my friends and I tried to assuage the heartbreak by immediately driving the 6 hours back to Davidson that very night.  It was miserable.

Early this season, Davidson was looking good.  The team strung together victories against Missouri, St. Joe's, and UMass and battled hard against Charlotte and Syracuse.  But then things settled back down to earth after a number of ugly losses to bad Socon teams. 

Unlike last year, this team peaked at the only time that matters, in the conference championship.  After narrowly beating The Citadel and Elon, Davidson flat-out destroyed UT-Chattanooga in today's final.  It was far and away the best I have ever seen a Davidson team play.

I'm psyched.  Hopefully, they won't seed us too low.  Right now, the silly bracketologists are putting us as a #15 seed but I wouldn't be surprised if we enter as a #13 or #14 come selection Sunday in a week.  GO DAVIDSON!